Duck hunters heading out this fall should expect fewer birds overall but possibly more young ones, Texas Parks and Wildlife Department biologists said Monday in their outlook for the 2026-27 waterfowl season.
The agency said populations of nearly all prairie-nesting duck species remain in a long-term decline after more than a decade of drought in the Prairie Pothole Region, the northern breeding grounds that supply much of the continent's ducks. Better habitat in several breeding areas this year should still produce a strong crop of juveniles, according to the department.
"While production gains help, hunters should approach the season with measured expectations, as the possibility of a reduced migration push and long-term population trends remain a concern," said Kevin Kraai, who leads TPWD's waterfowl program. He called the overall message "cautious optimism."
Rain is the deciding factor
Texas swung from a wet, cool early summer to extreme heat and dry conditions that stressed wetlands, the agency said. The arrival of El Niño and recent rain have quickly improved habitat in many regions.
Because Texas has little leftover farm grain for ducks to feed on, the department said rainfall largely determines how many birds winter in the state. Ducks rely on flooded natural habitat with seeds, invertebrates and aquatic plants, so more water generally means more food and more ducks.
Long-range forecasts call for a cooler, wetter Texas winter, which the agency said usually brings good numbers, though a warmer-than-normal winter farther north could slow migration or keep birds there if wetlands stay open.
By region, biologists said late-September rain recharged playa lakes in the High Plains; in East Texas, low summer reservoir levels exposed shorelines that grew dense, seed-bearing vegetation that should attract dabbling ducks as reservoirs refill; and the Gulf Coast still needs sustained rain after a hot, dry late summer.
