Texas farmers and ranchers who have spent years short on deep soil moisture may get help this winter from an El Niño that the state climatologist says is close to as strong as one can get.
John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state climatologist and a Texas A&M atmospheric sciences professor, told Texas A&M AgriLife Today that no past El Niño matches this one exactly, but six in the last 75 years came close. Those years, he said, "generally produce wet weather from October through April, especially October through February," with temperatures a bit cooler than normal, mostly because of the rain.
They also brought more snow to the northern half of the state.
He said computer models of this year's event point the same way, and that outlooks show it peaking around December before weakening through spring. A La Niña could follow next year, he said, calling this winter "probably a one-shot deal."
Wet on top, dry below
Rain earlier this month left water standing in fields in parts of Texas, but Ronnie Schnell, the AgriLife Extension state cropping systems specialist, said that is mostly surface moisture. That is one reason most of the state still shows up in drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor, he told AgriLife Today.
Years of short rainfall have left subsoil dry in many areas, Schnell said, and gains from a wet spring tend to disappear fast without that deeper reserve. Low streams, ponds and lakes reflect the same shortage, he said.
